25 January 2008

Useless predictions for the Febrauary 2008 California Bar exam

Caveat: Random useless guesses, they'll probably do more harm than good ... that being said:

I'm just guessing here based on the frequency chart in the barbri essays book (with the addition of the subsequent two exams). Predictions don't matter and none of the rules about which subject should or shouldn't be tested matter, last summer we got nearly all MBE subjects and Civ Pro (that everyone guessed would be on there) was absent. No one guessed right before, I sure as hell won't guess right now (can't be accurate if there's supposed to be a basically even split of MBE and non-MBE subjects) but this seems like as good a set of guesses as I can come up with for now...

My guesses as to which subjects are likely

Civil procedure - given the change in essay rules (now CA distinctions testable) and that htye haven't had it for three exams in a row.

PR - not a hard guess as it's included nearly every exam, but they skipped it last exam making it even more likely (though there was something to say about it in one of the Performance tests, but there often is).

Contracts - There was a cross over this summer with K's, but skipped the exam before that in spite of being a fairly popular subject. Also, it seems more likely because they usually include a fairly even split of MBE and non-MBE subjects, and the other MBE subjects have all be tested more often recently while contracts has only had a cross over and was skipped.

Remedies - skipped twice for the first time in recent exam history and common cross over before that (common cross with contracts which also seems due).

Wills and/or trusts - not a super common subject to be tested at all, and when it is tested it is often as a cross over with each other or another subject. Found some treatment in the Performance test in this summer's exam also. Nonetheless, seems due.

(6) Some
other MBE subject - though they all seem to be tested frequently, they all have been on there recently so it's hard to figure which is more likely "due" than another. Also, some apparently just have more involved exam writers who push to make good questions which the examiners use often as a result (i.e., Con law). Torts tested relatively rarely and was tested this summer, but skipped a few times before that so it's a toss up.

(7) What are your predictions? Why are mine so wrong that you could spit? What do your exam prep instructors think will be on there?

What won't be on there?

This is harder to guess and certainly shouldn't be relied upon for any reason. Sure shouldn't affect your study patterns at all, but here goes:

(1) Business associations? Hard to say, but it sure has been tested a lot over the past 6 exams for a subject that otherwise gets tested as rarely as any other. Then again, agency and partnership now in the mix so who knows.

(2) Con law? again, it is a really common subject so it probably doesn't matter that it's be tested very often recently. Also, it's relevant to political events over the past 7 years which puts it in the right timing for the cycle of test creation to examination ... don't skip studying it for anything.

(3) Real Property? Tested frequently (so you can't skip it) but i's been tested on 5 of the last 6 exams. But it doesn't seem much less likely that many other subjects, especially the MBEs.

You know what? Don't even consider this list of what might not be on there ... it's bad juju


Measuring Life said...

Remedies was on the July 07 bar with the agency question. You think it will be there again? I am guessing that one of the new subjets will be tested. I take all these predictions with a grain of salt but here's to hoping that property won't be there.

Holden said...

Measuring life:

Yeah, but apparently it was at most a "weak" cross over and was not included in the topic assignments in the released questions so it doesn't make it onto the "frequency chart" radar.

I agree that new subjects will be tested, I think business assn's (partnership/agency) is relatively unlikely and that civ pro will be the "new" subject tested.

I'm happy with property though, it's the non-MBE's the worry me more =)

RACHEL said...

Your guesses weren't too far off! PR was a good call since we saw that Tuesday, and I'm certain we're going to see some Wills/Trusts and probably some Civ Pro tomorrow.